6-25-2010 possible moderate risk for Sioux falls..

After going over the models using the NAM I can see there could be a moderate risk for the Sioux falls area . Now this is 24 hours out from the time I wrote this so slight changes in the atmosphere could be possible. It looks like storms should be popping up in the Sioux falls area around 4PM CST. So let start at the bottom and work our way up.

So and 21 UTC the temps will be in the mid to high 90s while the dew points at surface level sitting in the 80s while surface winds will the coming from the the south 12-15 mph. this will give the surface the fuel it needs for convection to begin. AS we go up in to the atmosphere we will find a mid-level jet coming from the north west at 30kts. Meanwhile the CAPE will be in the 4000 J kg. And the EHI looks great too sitting in the 7.00 (what ever that means)



And to make sure this forecast is panning out correctly I even checked the sounding in the Sioux Falls area.



As you can see there is a slight CAP but i believe this will break... But the Hodograph looks great. So we will see if the SPC will but this area under a moderate risk or not, only time will tell. Will Sioux falls sound there sirens tomorrow or not?

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O it is now 12:17 PST when I wrote this I will update the forecast. According the the NAM 21 TC models it is holding.. even the sounding is holding with a slight cap... As the evening goes on in the Sioux falls area. The sounding starting to look less and less convincing. But... I suspect this is due to the atmosphere being drained of its fuel due to the storm that have passes on by. As you can see in the second image..


AS we move on the sounding start to fall apart as i explained.



AS you can see we still have our high dews and temps on the surface and even our CAPE is still in the area



But the bulk of our sheer has shifted a bit to the north...



So in conclusion to this forecast i am not going to rule out sever weather for the Sioux falls area but i will down grade this from a possible moderate risk to a slight risk.... Lets see what happens in the next 6-8 hours

SPC is indeed categorizing southern Minnesota as a Moderate Risk today.