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 Severe Weather in the Central Plains this Thursday October 1st

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FlexJet
EF-1 Tornado
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Number of posts : 37
Age : 31
Location : Edmond, OK
Registration date : 2009-09-28

PostSubject: Severe Weather in the Central Plains this Thursday October 1st   Mon 28 Sep 2009 - 23:55

From the SPC:

...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE LWR MO
VALLEY/OZARK PLATEAU REGION THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST GUIDANCE REMAINS STRONGLY SUGGESTIVE THAT A
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IMPULSE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE ROCKIES IN
NEGATIVELY TILTED FASHION THURSDAY...PIVOTING AROUND THE SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL LOW. A SEASONABLY
STRONG MID/UPPER JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE APPEARS
LIKELY TO CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG SHEAR WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF A
FAIRLY DEEP SURFACE CYCLONE...WHICH NCEP MREF INDICATES COULD BECOME
CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY ACROSS PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY AND OZARK PLATEAU
REGION. COUPLED WITH THE STRONG LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION...THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BECOME CONDUCIVE TO
WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACCOMPANIED BY THE POSSIBILITY OF
A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK WHICH MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

THEREAFTER...THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE CLOSED LOW SEEMS LIKELY
TO SLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES...TO THE SOUTH OF A BLOCKING HIGH
CENTER NORTH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION... BEFORE ACCELERATING
EASTWARD/NORTHEASTWARD ONCE AGAIN AS ANOTHER CLOSED LOW EVOLVES FROM
THE NEXT IMPULSE DIGGING WITHIN THE SOUTHERN POLAR STREAM ALONG THE
PACIFIC COAST. THE SPREAD AMONG GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES INCREASES
CONCERNING THE DETAILS OF THIS EVOLUTION. AFTER A DECREASE IN
SEVERE POTENTIAL ON FRIDAY...THE LEAD SYSTEM MAY WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY
TO PRECLUDE A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN/EASTERN STATES THIS WEEKEND. BUT...THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED.

It looks pretty good down here in Oklahoma. I will provide only the best pics. Stay tuned!
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NW-SKYWARN
EF-1 Tornado
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Number of posts : 276
Age : 37
Location : Silverdale, WA
Registration date : 2009-08-01

PostSubject: Re: Severe Weather in the Central Plains this Thursday October 1st   Tue 29 Sep 2009 - 4:07

sounds good chase safe and "keep your eyes to the skies"
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Severe Weather in the Central Plains this Thursday October 1st
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